10 years until the electrification era! The danger of running out of gas stations !? Will the number of EV quick chargers increase rapidly?

Based on the "2050 Carbon Neutral" policy launched in December 2020, the government announced the electrification of new cars toward the middle of 2030, and the gas station (GS) that has supported automobiles for a long time disappeared. Is it destined to go?

On the other hand, will infrastructure development such as charging stations that support EVs (electric vehicles) and PHEVs (plug-in hybrid vehicles) increase rapidly in the future?

The number of gas stations has decreased sharply, and the time has come when you can't refuel unless you go far. In reality, motor journalist Nobuya Iwao will follow what will happen.Text / Nobuya Iwao Photo / Best Car Editorial Department, Best Car Web Editorial Department, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry / Agency for Natural Resources and Energy (Transition table of the number of refueling stations), Next Generation Vehicle Promotion Center (EV sales), Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (Charging equipment) Type), Toyota

[Image gallery] Check the current status of charging infrastructure for GS and EV with images!

■ Will gas stations decrease rapidly?

In the oil industry, GS, also known as a service station (SS), has continued to decline over the past decade, and stores that had to be closed for a period of time were often noticeable in both urban and rural areas.

As for the total number of GS, the number of full-service bases is 29,396, of which the number of self-service bases is 8393 (as of the end of December 2020, ENEOS estimate).

Going back, the peak number of GS bases has continued to decrease for 25 consecutive years from about 60,000 bases in 1994, and now it has almost halved. ) ・ ENEOS: 12,657 stores (number of self-service stations: 4469 stores) ・ Idemitsu Kosan: Idemitsu: 3430 stores (same: 1342 stores), Showa Shell: 2894 stores (1066 stores) ・ Cosmo Oil: 2734 stores (same: 1096 stores) Store)

First of all, I asked the three major former sales companies about their future management policies, but I was reminded of my lack of knowledge about SS management. There, we can see the unique business form of the oil retail industry.

As the three major retailers, "Except for directly managed stores, we are not directly involved in the management of the companies that operate individual SS. The business method changes depending on the circumstances of the operating company and each store in each region. It is not a so-called hierarchical relationship, but management decisions, including closures, are left to individual companies and dealers. "

Therefore, he asked the Fuel Oil and Fats Newspaper, an industry newspaper related to the oil business, about more specific SS management situations such as the declining trend in the number of stores.

As mentioned earlier, it is clear that SS is declining due to the lack of successors to operating companies, but the number of stores has decreased by about 10% due to the impact of Korona-ka and the resulting state of emergency in April 2020. rice field.

"Demand fell from March to May this year, but it picked up due to the drop in crude oil prices during the same period. The selling price cannot be raised easily.

On the other hand, a time lag with changes in the purchase price may act to make a profit. Crude oil prices have been rising these days, but it's not so easy to raise them. "

Then, when asked if the difference in management conditions between urban areas and rural areas also contributed to the decrease in stores, he said, "Except for depopulated areas, the impact on stores in the suburbs is small." Is easy to change. "

It is said that in the stand management, which is based on low profit and high sales, depending on the circumstances of individual operating companies, it has become possible to switch to convenience stores in recent years.

Of course, the future problem is "correspondence to carbon neutral policy", but it may be extremely easy, but as a future business, we will take advantage of infrastructure such as location conditions and install a charging facility to be described later. Is there a possibility of advancing?

"Currently, even with subsidies, the installation cost cannot be paid for by the" charge price ". It is difficult to improve the turnover of visitors as much as gasoline sales, and it is not worth the business." That's because it makes sense considering the time it takes to charge the battery.

In that case, in order to increase profits, for the time being, it will be necessary to attract customers by diversifying businesses such as used car sales, car leasing / sharing, and the establishment of convenience stores.

In any case, there is no doubt that the management of GS is a unique business that is dangerous and reluctant because the price of goods depends on the market price.

[Related article] From less than 1% to over 30% in 20 years !! Why is the number of self-service gas stations soaring ??

■ What is the charging infrastructure?

List of charging equipment nationwide (Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry) | (Link)

Then, what is the maintenance status of the charging equipment that supports the electric vehicle with a tailwind? The number of EVs (electric vehicles), PHEVs (plug-in hybrid vehicles), and FCVs (fuel cell vehicles) owned by the end of 2019 was 263,620, and the number of new vehicles sold in the same year was 38,585 (general incorporated association next). According to a survey by the Generation Vehicle Promotion Center).

In light of 2019, we would like to confirm that the number of all registered vehicles sold is only 0.7% of the 5,038,727 units sold (according to the Japan Automobile Dealers Association), which is still a minority.

Nevertheless, EV charging stations are now being found in large urban parking lots, large shopping malls in the suburbs, and convenience stores in rural areas.

Regarding the charging service, let's touch on Japan Charging Service (NCS), a joint venture that provides charging services, in which manufacturers such as Toyota, Nissan, Mitsubishi, and Honda have invested. The company's charging infrastructure network service has about 4,700 quick chargers nationwide, including chargers in the city other than highways.

More specifically, the number of available "chargers" including NCS contracts (as of the end of August 2020, according to Zenrin research) is about 30,100 for normal chargers, of which 7,900 are quick chargers. , It is said that there are 22,200 ordinary chargers.

Even if you do not have a dedicated charging card (certification cards are issued by the importers of the above Japanese and overseas manufacturers, BMW Japan, Tesla Motors Japan, Volkswagen Group Japan), you can still complete the procedure using your mobile phone. After that, you can use your credit card.

More specifically, the number of chargers that can be used, including NCS contracts (as of the end of August 2020, according to Zenrin research) is about 30,100 normal chargers, of which 7,900 are quick chargers. , It is said that there are 22,200 ordinary chargers.

For long-distance travel, if you have a contract with NCS, use a dedicated card, and on expressways / motorways, about 300 units will be installed in the service / parking area of ​​NEXCO East / Central / West Japan jurisdiction. It is said that a quick charger can be used (when checking the homepage, the number of facilities listed was about 100).

Whether or not these numbers are sufficient can be perceived by EV users as "insufficient numbers", considering the current situation where it is necessary to check whether there are charging facilities in the service area. There will be no.

Although many EVs have a function to provide availability information, it seems that "charging congestion" may occur in SA during holidays, so even if subsidies are prepared, it is still still considering the installation cost. The road to widespread use seems to be steep.

The next page is: ■ What is the response at the dealers of Japanese manufacturers?