[Breaking news] December 2021 Tokyo 23 wards second-hand apartment price highest update! What is the reason for the "abnormal" soaring price?

[Tokyo 23 wards] Data 1: Tokyo 23 wards Monthly average tsubo unit price

According to a survey by Mansion Navi, the unit price per tsubo dropped temporarily in April 2020, when the first state of emergency was declared, but it has been on a rising trend since the latter half of 2020. It has been accelerating since 2021. The unit price per tsubo of "3.282 million yen" in December 2021 is the highest since the bubble. [Osaka City] Data 2: Survey of monthly average tsubo unit price apartment navigation in Osaka City Although the price of Osaka City temporarily dropped due to the Korona-ka, it started to rise from the latter half of 2020 and accelerated in 2021. Is the same as the 23rd ward of Tokyo. ■ Comparison of year-on-year increase / decrease rate between 23 wards and Osaka City Data 3: Average tsubo unit increase / decrease rate for the previous year Condominium navigation survey The unit price per tsubo of pre-owned condominiums has increased significantly in the last two years in both Tokyo's 23 wards and Osaka City. .. However, even if the tendency is the same, there is a big difference in the rate of increase / decrease in the unit price per tsubo as described above. In particular, in 2021, the rate of increase in the 23 wards of Tokyo was remarkable compared to that of Osaka City, and the rate of increase was more than 10% in one year. The pace of price increases is very fast. The price of pre-owned condominiums was expected to fall due to the consumption tax hike in 2019 and the spread of the new coronavirus infection. However, in reality, the prices will continue to rise in 2020 and 2021. One of the reasons for this is that the pre-owned condominiums were refrained from selling due to the unusual situation of the corona epidemic. In other words, it is probable that the imbalance between supply and demand in the market due to supply shortages was caused by the soaring prices. Data 4: Rate of increase / decrease in the number of condominiums for sale compared to FY2019 According to the survey of condominium navigation, the rate of increase / decrease in the number of pre-owned condominiums for sale in 2020 and 2021 is as above compared to 2019 before the Korona-ka. Both have decreased significantly, but the rate of decrease in the 23 wards of Tokyo in 2020 is remarkable. It can also be seen that 2021 has recovered in the 23 wards of Tokyo compared to 2020, while it has deteriorated in Osaka City. If we simply look at the supply volume, Osaka City should be under more upward pressure in 2021, but looking at the rate of price increase in "Data 3" mentioned above, Tokyo's 23 wards surpassed the rate of price increase in Osaka City. I am doing it. Data 5: Sales period from the start of sales in Tokyo's 23 wards and Osaka city Survey of apartment navigation The above graph shows the start of sales of used condominiums that have been sold every month in Tokyo's 23 wards (orange) and Osaka city (blue). It shows the average number of days that have passed since the sale was completed. The shorter this period, the sooner the property will sell, and it can be judged that the demand is high. In Osaka City, the sales period temporarily increased from July to November 2020, but overall it remained flat. On the other hand, in the 23 wards of Tokyo, the sales period has clearly shortened since the beginning of 2021, and this tendency continues until the latest survey . In other words, it can be considered that "demand promotion" has a greater effect than "supply shortage" on the soaring price of pre-owned condominiums in the 23 wards of Tokyo. ■ Is the "swelling of demand" a major factor in the soaring prices of pre-owned condominiums in the 23 wards of Tokyo that are "abnormal"? In December 2021, the price of pre-owned condominiums in the 23 wards of Tokyo reached a record high. From the supply side alone, the number of sales in the 23 wards of Tokyo is on the rise compared to Osaka, so it is unlikely that prices will rise so far. On the other hand, in the 23 wards of Tokyo, the sales period has been significantly shortened since 2021. From the above, it is considered that the fact that the supply volume is on a recovery trend but the swelling of demand has surpassed it and the appearance of a bubble is a major factor in the soaring prices of pre-owned condominiums. The price of pre-owned condominiums continues to rise even if the supply is recovering. In the future, the author speculates that the possible factor for the decline is the reduction in demand due to the rise in long-term interest rates that affect the mortgage interest rate (which has the effect of restraining demand). * Details of this article https://t23m-navi.jp/magazine/editorial/news/2021-dec/ * When using the data of this release, please specify [Condominium Navi survey] as the citation source. [Condominium Research Co., Ltd. Service URL] ■ Real estate sale batch assessment service "Mansion Navi" https://t23m-navi.jp/ ■ Real estate data cloud https://fudosan-data.jp/ ■ Robo assessment https://robosatei .jp / ■ Sale of condominium data for sale https://fudosan-data.jp/product/re-data/ [About Condominium Research Co., Ltd.] Mansion Research Co., Ltd. operates a real estate sale batch assessment site in 2011. Since its establishment, we have collected "140,000 condominium data covering almost all used condominiums all over Japan", "100 million or more real estate sales case data" and "analysis data of user attributes aiming to sell real estate". .. Based on these data, we provide support for attracting customers, support for improving operational efficiency, and sales of real estate-related data. Company name: Mansion Research Co., Ltd. Location: 1-2-11 Kudankita, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo Aim Tokyo Kudan Building 3rd floor Established: April 2011 Capital: 100 million yen Web: https: // mansionresearch. co.jp/