How to identify US value stocks?Explain popular brands
One of the methods for classifying stocks is a method of dividing it into growth stocks and value stocks.Growth stock is a growing company stock, and value shares are cheaper stocks for profit and asset value.
Growth stocks may increase the stock price twice or tripled in a short period of time, but value stocks rarely soar in a short period of time.There is such a value stock, but there is a good side.Because it is cheap, it means that it is lowered.If the market is overheated, if a crash occurs, the already expensive growth stock will greatly exceed the value of the value.
バリュー株の基準としては、S&Pなどの指数のPERやPBR、配当利回りと比較し、PERやPBRが低く、配当利回りが高いことが挙げられます。企業としては成熟しているので業績の成長率が低く、そのため株価は低迷しがちです。地味なイメージのバリュー株ですが、企業によっては配当金が増額され、株価の上昇も期待できる銘柄があります。
Therefore, this time, we will explain not only the conventional PER, PBR, dividend yield, but also dividend growth and sales growth, and explains how to determine US value stocks and popular stocks.
マネックス証券で米国株を探す* This article aims to provide information to investors and does not solicit investment in specific stocks.Please make a decision on investment in your own discretion.
1 To determine the value stock (conventional method)
PER, PBR and dividend yields have been used as a scale for value stocks.Whether these figures are higher or lower than those in the same industry or index, it is relatively determined whether it is a value stock.
One of the first conditions of value shares is that the expected PER is low.PER is a value in which the net income of a company has been divided by the number of shares issued by the stock price.It represents how many times the stock price has been bought (years), and the lower the price, the lower it is.
予想PERは予想利益率を基に算出されます。2021年7月26日時点のS&P500指数の予想PERは約23倍です。そのため相対的な基準として、予想PERが15倍未満の銘柄は指数と比較し割安な水準と言えます。
バリュー株の特徴として、高い配当利回りが挙げられます。配当利回りは配当金額を株価で割って求めます。7月26日時点の配当利回りはS&P500指数が約1.3%, Dow average is about 1.7%.Compared to the dividend yield of these indices, the brand that exceeds 4%is a high dividend stock.
Another feature of value shares is that the PBR (net asset ratio) is low.It indicates how many times the stock price is bought per share.The smaller the price, the cheaper, some of which are less than 1 times.
Theoretically, brands with less than 1x PBR are below the value of the company.However, PBR is just theoretical, and there are many brands that are less than 1 times in the market.
2 Value stock of the old standard
上記基準のバリュー株に該当する米国株の代表的存在がAT&Tやベライゾン・コミュニケーションズです。
AT&Tは米国最大の電話会社で、グラハム・ベルが創業したベル電話会社が前身です。年間売上高は約19兆円、従業員数22.It is a huge company of 50,000.The stock price as of July 26 this year is 28.$ 18, the expected PER is 8.69 times, PBR 1.15 times, dividend yield is 7.38%, market capitalization is about 22 trillion yen.
Verizon Communications is also a major telecommunications company.A holding company provides services such as communication and information to consumers and companies through subsidiaries.
The annual sales are about 13 trillion yen and the number of employees is 1.It will be 30,000.The stock price as of July 26 this year is 55.$ 78, the expected PER is 10.5 times, PBR 2.89 times, dividend yield is 4.5%, market capitalization is about 25 trillion yen.
3 Additional standards for value stocks
In addition to the above, there are criteria for identifying value stocks.
The dividend growth rate is the increase rate of dividends.It is not unusual for US companies to continue to increase dividends.Some companies have been increasing the distribution for more than 60 years.Although the dividend yield of this kind of brand is not high, the dividend yield (book value standard) increases as dividends increase.
If sales grown steadily, dividend resources will increase.In addition, as business performance grows, you can expect to rise in stock prices.In the past, companies with high dividend yields tend to have lower stock prices lower than the index, but stocks with high sales growth tend to exceed the index.
4 New standard value stock
Here are some examples of major value US stocks based on dividend growth and sales growth rates.
Abvi is a drug manufacturer that handles drugs in fields that require special treatment, such as neurological diseases in the United States.The number of employees is 4.It is a large company with 80,000 people and about 5 trillion yen annual sales.
Stock price is 117.$ 80, the expected PER is 9.37 times, PBR 10.4 times, dividend yield 4.4 %, market capitalization is about 23 trillion yen.The dividend growth rate in the past five years is 18%, and the average sales growth rate for 5 years is 18%.
Bristol Myers Squave is a global bio -pharmaceutical company, developing and selling pharmaceuticals and nutritional supplements, and has an annual sales of about 5 trillion yen.
Stock price 67.$ 70, the expected PER is 9.0 times, PBR 4.05 times, dividend yield is 2.9 %, market capitalization is 16.It is 5 trillion yen.The dividend growth rate for the past 5 years is 4.9%, the average sales growth rate for 5 years is 23%, which is in the growth process.
Walgreen Boots Alliance is the world's largest drugstore chain, with an annual sales of about 15 trillion yen and 330,000 employees.
The company's shares are used on average on the 30 kinds of Dow Industrial stocks, and the stock price is 47..$ 25, the expected PER is 9.8 times, PBR 1.8 times, dividend yield 4.0 % and market capitalization is about 4.It is 5 trillion yen.The dividend growth rate in the past 5 years is 5.3%, average sales growth rate for 5 years is 3.4 %.
Edison International is working on a power plant business throughout the world through its subsidiaries.
Sales are 1.5 trillion yen, employees 1.30,000 people.The market capitalization is about 2.3 trillion yen, stock price 55.$ 5, the expected PER is 12.61 times, PBR 1.42 times, the dividend growth rate in the past 5 years is 7.1%, 5 -year average sales growth rate 4.0%.
| 銘柄 | 株価 （ドル） | PBR（倍） | 予想PER（倍） | 配当利回り(%) | 過去5年の配当成長率(%) | 5年間平均売上成長率(%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AT&T | 28.18 | 1.15 | 8.69 | 7.38 | 1.72 | 2.03 |
| ﾍﾞﾗｲｿﾞﾝ･ｺﾐｭﾆｹｰｼｮﾝｽﾞ | 55.78 | 2.89 | 10.60 | 4.50 | 2.12 | 2.18 |
| ｱｯｳﾞｨ | 117.79 | 10.40 | 9.37 | 4.41 | 18.01 | 18.16 |
| ﾌﾞﾘｽﾄﾙ ﾏｲﾔｰｽﾞ ｽｸｲﾌﾞ | 67.69 | 4.05 | 9.07 | 2.90 | 4.92 | 23.29 |
| ｳｫﾙｸﾞﾘｰﾝ･ﾌﾞｰﾂ･ｱﾗｲｱﾝｽ | 47.25 | 1.83 | 9.78 | 4.04 | 5.36 | 3.34 |
| ｴｼﾞｿﾝ･ｲﾝﾀｰﾅｼｮﾅﾙ | 55.49 | 1.42 | 12.24 | 4.78 | 7.16 | 4.01 |
2016年7月28日から2021年7月27日の5年間におけるS&P500指数の上昇率は102.5%です。これに対し、従来のバリュー銘柄基準として取り上げたAT&Tやベライゾン・コミュニケーションズの上昇率はベライゾンが26.6％、AT&Tに至ってはマイナス12.2%.
AT&Tの過去5年の株価平均は28.$ 88, 35 high prices.$ 25, the low is 22.$ 39, standard deviation 2.It was $ 44.in short.68%of stock prices 26 out of the past 5 years.$ 44 to 31.It means that it was changing between $ 32 (average 28).$ 88 ± standard deviation 2.$ 44).
As a result, the stock price is sluggish as a factor in high yields.If the current dividend is maintained, there is a good taste as a stock price aimed at yield.However, it lacks the charm as a stock.
一方、配当成長率や売上成長率を従来のバリュー株基準に追加した銘柄のなかには、指数の上昇率を上回る銘柄もあります。アッヴィの上昇率は123％と、S&P500指数の102.5 % higher than 20 points.
Abvi's average value in the past 5 years is 76.$ 84, high price 118.$ 67, the low is 44.$ 28, the standard deviation is 17.It was $ 82.The range of standard deviation is 59.$ 02 to 94.$ 66.The higher the expected value, the greater the standard deviation.The background is that the company's dividend growth and sales growth rates are high.
| 銘柄 | 価格（ドル） | 過去5年のリターン(%) | 平均値（ドル） | 高値 （ドル） | 安値 （ドル） | 標準偏差（ドル） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AT&T | 28.20 | -12.22 | 28.88 | 35.25 | 22.39 | 2.44 |
| ﾍﾞﾗｲｿﾞﾝ･ｺﾐｭﾆｹｰｼｮﾝｽﾞ | 56.20 | 26.61 | 48.68 | 59.96 | 35.92 | 6.7 |
| ｱｯｳﾞｨ | 117.96 | 123.4 | 76.84 | 118.67 | 44.28 | 17.82 |
| ﾌﾞﾘｽﾄﾙ ﾏｲﾔｰｽﾞ ｽｸｲﾌﾞ | 67.49 | 4.55 | 52.23 | 68.53 | 39.93 | 6.73 |
| ｳｫﾙｸﾞﾘｰﾝ･ﾌﾞｰﾂ･ｱﾗｲｱﾝｽ | 46.82 | -31.8 | 57.45 | 78.7 | 32.37 | 11.89 |
| ｴｼﾞｿﾝ･ｲﾝﾀｰﾅｼｮﾅﾙ | 57.15 | -11 | 59.76 | 73.68 | 40.56 | 6.15 |
summary
Value shares cannot be expected to rise in a short period of time, such as growth stocks, but are left to a low level, so they are strengthened when the entire market falls.It is important to note that many investors invest for dividends, so if the dividend is reduced, the stock price will drop significantly.
If a company is growing, the risk of reduction in dividends can be reduced.Therefore, on the condition that the conventional expected PER and PBR are lower than the index, and the dividend yield is high, the dividend growth rate and the sales growth rate can be invested in stocks that are expected to rise in stock prices.。
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