What is the impact on the new administration of Biden and the US -Japan stock price?US 208 trillion yen Changes after the establishment of the economy countermeasures
Democratic candidate Joe Biden, who won the US presidential election last November, officially became the 46th President on January 20.Economic measures for 1.9 trillion yen (about 208 trillion yen), which are the highlights, were established on March 11.Vaccines for the new colon virus are also spreading at a speed beyond expected, making it a good boat.
Let's take a look at the effects of the Biden administration's birth, based on the movement after the establishment of the government and the policies that have been announced so far.
PayPay証券で米国株投資を検討する* This article is written based on information as of March 30, 2021.Please check the latest information yourself.
1 Impact on US stocks
Let's take a look at the birth of the Biden administration on the US stock market.
On January 5, Georgia, two Senate voting voted for the Senate, which decided the majority of the Senate in the Council, was held, and both seats took the Democratic Party candidates from the current Republican candidate.As a result, in the Senate, the Republican Party and the Democratic Party were all secured by the Republican Party and the Democratic Party, but in the Senate, the Vice President also served as the Senator and the same number in the case of the bill is one vote.Democratic has become a de facto majority and has taken the initiative.
With the Democratic Party securing the real rule of the Senate, the "Blue Wave", which is dominated by the Democratic Party of the White House and the Upper House, has been completed, and a bill can be established with major policies such as environmental protection and medical insurance promoted by the Biden administration.The sex has increased.Congress has the authority to determine the government budget, and the Senate has the authority to approve human resources and ratifications of the government's highest government officials and federal courts.It is the first time in 12 years since the Democratic Party has seized all the White House and the upper and lower hospitals since 2009.
On March 11, Mr. Biden signed a $ 1.9 trillion (about 208 trillion yen) additional economic measures bill.The bill generally follows the content proposed by Biden on January 14.It was passed once in the lower house on February 27, but was passed on the lower house again on the 10th due to the Senate passed a bill that made a revised content on March 6th.
Approximately 1 trillion dollars are turned around for pillars, which includes special measures to add $ 1,400 in cash per person and add $ 300 to unemployment benefits per week.The addition to the unemployment insurance was approaching on March 14.
In the United States, a 2 trillion dollar economic countermeasures were established in March last year, and an additional $ 900 billion stimulus was established in December.Cash benefits were $ 1,200 in March last year, following $ 600 in December, and the cumulative total was $ 3,200.
According to the U.S. Ministry of Commerce, the U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) in the April-June quarter of 2020 is 31 due to the epidemic of the new Corona..The decrease in 4 % and the largest decline in the postwar period, but in the July-September quarter of the July-September fiscal year following the implementation of large-scale economic measures..4 % increased, V -shaped recovery.
Nevertheless, in the United States, the number of new Corona infected people has again increased since November, and behavioral restrictions have been re -introduced in major cities.As a result, concerns were increased by the end of the year, which led to the establishment of additional economic measures at the end of December.
In fact, the Corona re-expanded and the shortness of breath of the first economic countermeasures overlap, and the GDP for the October-December fiscal year is 4.The momentum of recovery has increased by 0 %, and after all, in 2020 years, 3 years from the previous year..It was 5 % down, a significant depression since 1946.According to the Ministry of Labor, the number of non -agricultural sector employees in December last year has decreased by 2,27,000 (preliminary figures), the first in eight months since April.
On February 5, the U.S. House of Council passed a budget resolution that allowed the Republican Party to approve a 1.9 trillion dollar Coronavirus countermeasure proposal.As a result, the Senate has been able to approve with a majority of support, rather than agree with 60 votes, and the fact that 50 Republican members can be passed even if all of the Republican lawmakers can be passed, led to the enactment of additional economic measures.I did it.
The Senate usually need 60 out of 100 seats to avoid the disruption of the proceedings, but if you use a special case limited to budget -related bills, you can pass even the simple half of 51 votes.As a result, it is effective that the Democratic Party has obtained two seats in the Senate election in Georgia in January.
大型景気対策の成立を受けて、年後半には景気回復が勢いを増すとの見方が強まり、米株式市場ではダウ平均株価指数やS&P500種指数が過去最高値を更新しています。
On the other hand, the establishment of a huge fiscal stimulus measures has increased the sense of alertness that the US Federal Reserve Board (Fed) may move to shrinking monetary easing earlier than expected.Is rising.
The US 10 -year bond yield is 0 last August.Although it has dropped to the 5 % range, it rises slowly as a bottom, and in mid -March 1.It has reached the 7 % range.The standard is beyond the new Coronovirus epidemic.
Five years, five -year infrastructurewap rate (average forecast inflation rate for 5 years from 5 years from 5 years later), which is a guide for the expected inflation rate, was generally rising after 1 % in March last year, and this year this year.Entering and rising to near 2 %, this is also exceeding the standard in front of the corona.
Rising interest rates is a negative factor for the stock market, but the headwinds to technology stocks, which are expected to be practical from a long -term perspective, are increasing.In recent years, as a backdrop of the expectation of economic recovery, the economic consumer goods that are sensitive to the economy have been performing well, but the technology stocks that have deducted the market in the corona evil have lacked intense color.
If the expansion of financial deterioration and inflation concerns have been raised, long -term interest rates will continue to rise in the future, and they may be hit by technology stocks.
US GDP growth rate in 2020 is minus 3.5％と1946年以来、74年ぶりの大幅な落ち込みとなりました。それにもかかわらず、米主要株価指数であるS&P500種指数の年間での騰落率は16％余りの上昇となり、株式市場は大幅高で1年を終えています。
Despite the recession, the background of the rise in stock prices includes financial support, a decline in interest rates due to monetary easing, and the recovery of economic recovery due to the spread of vaccine.
The new colon virus epidemic gave a major blow, mainly in the services such as food and beverage, and tourism.In these industries, the number of unemployed people has increased significantly, which has led to a recession in the economy.
Normally, the economy retreats both income and consumption, but this time the income has increased, but the consumption has decreased, which has a significant effect on the stock height.
First, looking at the consumption side, the feature of this time is that the consumption has declined, despite the fact that the demand itself has not decreased.Due to the restrictions on behavior in the new colona, the physical consumption of travel and restaurants was physically restricted, and personal consumption in 2020 was 22020 year -on -year..The decrease was reduced by 7 %.
On the other hand, looking at individual income, 2020 was 6 year -on -year..3 % increase and 2019 3.The growth rate has risen significantly from 9 % increase.Despite the increase in income, the savings rate in 2020 is 16 due to reduced consumption..2 % and 2019 7.It rose sharply from 5 %.
The unemployment rate in April 2020 is 14.The worst after the war, 8 %, and although it has been significantly improved since then, even in February 2021, 6.2 % and 3 in February 2020 in front of Corona.It is much higher than 5 %.Despite the large number of unemployed people, the increase in income is a huge financial support.In addition to cash benefits, special benefits and benefits for unemployed have greatly reduced the economic hitting of unemployed people.
Unemployment insurance, self -employed, freelancers, and independent contractors (gig workers), which were previously not eligible, were also eligible for benefits.According to the U.S. Congress Budget Bureau (CBO), 6 of the unemployment insurance benefits were added to the U.S. Congress Budget Bureau (CBO) in the economic countermeasures established in March last year.It is said that five people received a benefit that exceeded the income before unemployment.
The addition of unemployment benefits ended once at the end of July, but it was revived in the form of additional $ 300 (until March 14) with additional measures in December, and extended to September with additional measures in March. It has been.
In this way, as a background of the stock high, the expense of most entertainment, such as leisure trips and watching sports in the stadium, is virtually unable to spend money from the increase in income from financial support.I have mentioned it.Therefore, the current stock height has been supported by the Corona crisis and unprecedented financial support, rather than the Corona crisis.
If consumption is activated due to the cancellation of behavior restrictions due to the convergence of the corona, the savings rate is expected to return to the original level if the consumption is active, and the growth of income decelerates to the level of economic growth.increase.As the amount of money expanded due to the corona evil shrinks, there is a possibility that the supporting material peculiar to Corona will drop.
In the United States, the US Food and Pharmaceutical Bureau (FDA) has granted emergency use permission to the new Coronavirus vaccine jointly developed by Bion Tech in the United States on December 11, 2020.The vaccination has begun.Next, the FDA approved the vaccine permission of the vaccine developed by the US Bio Pharmaceutical Company Modela on December 18, and began inoculation on the 21st.
Mr. Biden has positioned the new Corona as a top priority, and initially aimed for 100 million vaccination within 100 days of January 20.According to the U.S. Disease Countermeasures Center (CDC), vaccination in the United States as of March 28 was more than 143 million, as planned.Vaccinated was advanced at a significant speed.
In response to this situation, Mr. Biden has raised its vaccination targets to 200 million times, twice the initials.As of late March, the United States is inoculation at a pace of 2 to 2.5 million times a day, so if you maintain your current pace, new goals are expected to be cleared.
In New York, vaccination from the Yankee Stadium as a venue has begun on February 5, and vaccination in drugstore chain CVS, supermarket Wal -Mart, Costco, etc. has begun, and has a system that is susceptible to vaccination.increase.As of March 30, in addition to essential workers such as medical workers and food stores, they are subject to vaccination over 30 years old.From April 6, it will be expanded to over 16 years old.
In the United States, the subject is expected to be expanded to all people by May 1, and Biden has indicated that it can be "independent" from Corona by July 4, the US independent anniversary.。
The hitting of the infectious disease trend is close to natural disasters such as earthquakes and typhoons, mainly the supply of the supply side, such as suspension of production due to the detachment of supply networks, and has not lost potential demand.Various restrictions on economic activities have been applied due to the trend of Corona, but if these restrictions are lifted, the economy can be autonomously returned to its original level.
If you don't know how long the corona measures will continue, it will be reasonable to reduce consumption and increase your savings in case of the future, but if the spread of vaccines causes uncertainty, consumption will rapidly consume.It may expand.
However, it is unlikely that daily necessities such as food and daily necessities will increase more than ever before, and it is likely that demand for relatively expensive products, dedicated products, etc. that have been suppressed due to corona trends will recover.。With the spread of vaccines, it is expected that travel, entertainment, and tourism -related stocks that have fallen so far will rapidly return their values.
Due to the Vice President of the Obama administration, Videnum has been prominent to the Veteran from the Obama administration.Antony Brinken, who has served as diplomatic diplomatic positions in both Clinton and Obama administration, has been appointed as the Secretary of the Obama, and the Assistant President (National Security) is the Obama administration and assistant assistant to Biden's National Security.Mr. Jake Sullivan, the US Trade Representative (USTR) representative of the Obama administration, Catherine Thailand, who was in charge of China, and the U.S. Central Information Bureau (CIA) was the Obama administration.Mr. Barnes and the President's Economic Advisory Committee (CEA) have appointed Cecilia Raws, a member of the President's Economic Advisory Committee during the Obama administration.
Mr. Biden's foreign policy has a policy that emphasizes international cooperation, in contrast to Mr. Trump's attitude, which has raised the US first.。
In a nominated hearing in the Senate held in January, Brinken stated that the most important diplomatic concern for the United States was "China."He recognizes the harsh policy developed by the Trump administration to China, "I don't agree with the method, but it was the right initiative," and announced in China that it would be a strong position.I am.
Mr. Trump has claimed that "Mr. Biden is a good compliance in China" during the presidential election, but on February 5, on February 5, in a telephone talk with the Chinese diplomatic, the United States was Xinjiang Uyghur, Tibet, Hong Kong.He expressed his position to support human rights and democratic value, and stated that it would take a tough attitude toward China.
On March 1st, USTR publishes an annual report, which will be the guideline of trade policy in 2021, and to deal with Chinese unfair trade practices that continue to damage US workers.He emphasizes that "use all means.""Transferred the protection of domestic workers in Japan as a result of the promotion of free trade promotion during the Obama administration, which has become dissatisfied with the workers and has led to the support of Mr. Trump.We are promoting the attitude of putting it at the center of the policy.
The New York Stock Exchange announced on February 26 that it has decided to enter the delisting procedure for Chinese marine oil (CNOOC), a major Chinese oil giant.In January, three Chinese telecommunications companies were suspended in January, based on a presidential decree that banned investment in Chinese companies, which was regarded as supporting the Chinese army.
Former Trump administration, aiming to counter China's technology -related threats, has given the Ministry of Commerce to prohibit the Technology -related business transactions in November last year that it will be a threat to national security.The rules have been announced.The Ministry of Commerce has announced on February 26 that the Biden administration plans to allow the rules to come into effect.
Regarding trade friction with China, the Trump administration has shown the idea of continuing to keep up to 25 % of sanctions on the trigger for the time being and to correct the infringement of intellectual property rights.Is expected to face China in a strong posture.
Mr. Biden has revealed his first telephone talks with President Xi Jinpin in China on February 11 and 10, and is alert to the fact that China has invested a lot in the infrastructure field.He expressed a sense of crisis that "If we don't move, they will be defeated by them."
He also states that China is strengthening its arbitrary actions against Taiwan and other countries, saying, "China's constricted and unfairness, strengthening of Hong Kong, and human rights in Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region.He said he was concerned that he was strengthening its own dogmatic acts, such as infringement and response to Taiwan. "
According to the National Statistics Bureau, China's gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020 is 2.It increased by 3 %, ensuring the only positive growth in major countries.The dollar -based GDP calculated based on the official exchange rate is 3 year -on -year..It increased by 0%to $ 14,730 billion.
In contrast, the United States has stumbled in the first -movement of the new Corona and has been pulled by the economy, and according to the U.S. Ministry of Commerce, the US name GDP was 2 year -on -year..It fell 3 % to $ 20.94 billion.As a result, the Chinese name GDP in 2020 exceeded 70 % of the United States.
The Nippon Economic Research Center predicted last December, and China expects that it will surpass the United States in 28 years in 28.According to the forecast as of 2019, it was anticipated that "we will not overtake by 35 years", so it may have accelerated the US -China GDP approaching the new Corona correspondence.
Environmental policies are expected to make a major change in the US government change.Immediately after becoming the president on January 20, Mr. Biden signed a presidential decree to return to the Paris Agreement, an international framework for global warming, and officially officially on February 19, 30 days after the notification.Return to return.The former Trump administration left on November 4, 2020, saying that the US burden was unfair.
The Paris Agreement, which was adopted in 2015, is a framework that reduces the amount of global warming gas emissions in order to achieve goals, such as keeping the temperature rise from the industrial revolution to less than twice.
Mr. Biden has set a "Clean Energy Revolution" in last year's presidential election and launched an investment plan of $ 2 trillion (about 218 trillion yen) to achieve the clean energy economy.He is targeting wind turbines, sustainable houses, and electric vehicles, and is aimed at realizing zero exhaust gas in the power generation sector by 2035.
On January 27, Biden has signed a new presidential decree aiming to reduce global warming gas, and has been supporting the transition from fossil fuels to regenerative energy.The Presidential Ordinance has regulated new oil and gas development in the federal government's management areas and examines a policy to increase the production of offshore winds by 2030 to expand the reproduction energy.。It also states that subsidies for fossil fuels will be reduced to support renewable energy technology development.
Apart from the movement of the administration, California has announced the ban on new gasoline vehicles by 2035 last September.The popularity of solar and electric vehicles (EV) related stocks is increasing as a Videnium stock, with the expectation of the realization of energy policy with the promotion of renewable energy.
2 Impact on Japanese stocks
The United States, the world's largest economic power, is also a barometer of the global economy, so Japanese stocks are generally linked to the movement of US stocks, but their original materials are paying attention to the exchange rate and oil prices.
There are various fluctuations in exchange rates, but the movement of prices and interest rates is highly noticeable, and it is often the case that the real interest rate fluctuates in terms of name interest rates, which takes place to the relative movements of real interest rates.
As prices rise, the number of things that can be purchased in one currency is reduced and the purchasing power decreases.This means that the currency value is depreciable.For example, if an apple of 100 yen per piece reaches 200 yen, it can be purchased for 100 yen..I think that the value of money has decreased because it will be five.
However, if the interest rate is the same as the increase in prices, for example, if the inflation rate is 10 % and the interest rate is 10 %, even if the 100 yen item rises to 110 yen, the interest rate is 100 yen.By receiving the yen, the total principal and interest will be 110 yen, and the purchasing power will be maintained at the same level.In this example, the real interest rate of the yen is zero.
The yen against the dollar is a deeply yen difference between the real interest rate between the yen and the dollar (the real interest rate of the real interest rate of the dollar), and the yen shrinks and the yen is stronger.In the short term, price fluctuations are relatively slow, so the difference between dollar interest rates and yen interest rates will be reflected in the dollar yen, but the yen interest rate is relatively calm, so the yen is in the yen.The movement is generally linked to the fluctuation of the dollar interest rate.
After the new Corona's epidemic, the yen has risen to the dollar (expensive) over the dollar through 2020, with the clues to the significant decrease in the US long -term interest rates.Since then, the US interest rate has risen due to the increase in expectations for the recovery of rice scenery due to the spread of vaccines and the recovery of the US scenery due to additional economic measures.
With the establishment of large additional economic measures in the United States, the prospect that the US economy will recover early has spread, and interest rates may rise further as recovery.In fact, if the US interest rate rises, it is likely that the yen will be depreciated, and it will be a positive factor in the Japanese stock market.
However, in the United States, inflation pressure is increasing, deflationary pressure is increasing in Japan, and if the name interest rate is constant, the rise in inflation pressure means a decline in real interest rates, and the increase in deflationary pressure means an increase in interest rate.。Therefore, if the interest rate movement is limited, it is assumed that the yen will be a strong yen in the medium to long term, reflecting the difference in inflation.
The rise in crude oil prices is more likely to be a plus in the United States, the country of crude oil, and a negative factor in Japan, an imported country, and the impact on stock prices is in the opposite direction.
Immediately after taking office, Mr. Biden signed 15 Presidential Ordinance, some of whom the Keystone XL Pipeline, which carries crude oil from Canada to the Middle of the United States, has been canceled, and the Trump administration has approved the Northern East Alaska.There are suspensions of lease activities for oil and gas development in the Arctic National Wildlife Protection Zone.
Transfer from the decarvage and fossil fuels to clean energy from the Biden administration can stop crude oil production and reduce the supply.
In addition, while the Trump administration is looking for a return to a nuclear agreement with Iran, the former Trump administration has left, it has been conducting an air strike for parent Iranian armed facilities in eastern Syria, continuing to perform hard and soft weaving.。In response to the criticism that the Obama administration's Iranian policy against Iran has led to Islamic extremist, the Biden administration is expected to be more strict than the Obama administration to Iran.
Crude oil exports from Iran are expected to increase the United States to Iran, so walking to Iran is likely to be a weak material for crude oil prices.On the other hand, if it is a hard line, it will be a tailwind for crude oil prices.
Since the United States is a crude oil production country, rising crude oil prices can be a tailwind for US energy companies.On the other hand, Japan relies on most crude oil, so the economy may be hit by an increase in crude oil prices.
WTI (West Texas Inter mididiates) crude oil price futures, which are typical indicators of crude oil prices, rose to $ 66 per barrel in early March, and reached the level in front of the corona (around $ 50).It is greatly exceeded.
summary
Despite the fact that the economy has been retreated by the Corona, the stock price has risen significantly, and the movement of the economic fundamentals (basic conditions) and stock prices does not always match.Nevertheless, stock prices are said to be the economic barometer, and it is certainly affected.
Stock prices from the beginning of the year are supported by the spread of vaccines and economic measures, reflecting the results of the Biden administration.If vaccinations proceed as planned, recovery in a situation close to Corona in the second half of the year will be realistic.
However, the impact of economic recovery on stock prices varies depending on the type of industry.As the spread of vaccines is reduced by the spread of vaccines, travel and leisure -related stocks will benefit more greatly on technology stocks that have benefited from work from home and remote classes.However, it is important to note that the rise in interest rates associated with the economic recovery may be a factor in controlling stock prices.
The Biden administration is one of the pillars of policy on global warming, and clean -energy -related companies are being tailed by government support.
The Biden administration has raised a shift from US -US -first -owned to international coordination in the former Trump administration, but continues to maintain hard -line routes in China and Iranian policies, and is vigilant in geopolitical risks.Is necessary.
As an impact on Japanese stocks, it is likely that the yen will need to be careful about the appreciation of the yen and the height of crude oil.
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